I get it. It’s more popular I suppose. You play fantasy football. You think you know what you’re doing or who’s good.
Well brother man the NFL has rules in place to promote mediocrity. Salary cap, the draft, Roger Goodell.
Now there are many reasons for this. And before you start. Yes, Bill Belichick is just better at football than everyone. I can’t verify he sacrifices his sleeves to football gods I just know it’s true.
Anyway, what does this all mean for betting on the NFL?
The spread is always going to be close. Anyone can beat anyone week to week. Ok, if you want to punch the money line on favorites I have folks that use that strategy. Have to risk a ton and pucker your butthole if things get close. More on that another time.
College football may have scholarship limits and other small claims to fairness. We all know who’s going to be good most years and watching the games it’s a lot easier. Also making these lines can be very difficult to determine.
I’ll make you an example. BYU is -34 1/2 right now. You’re never going to see a -30+ spread on an NFL game. Does that mean you shouldn’t take BYU? No. Are you going to see some weird lines from Vegas on certain matchups to take advantage of? Yes.
Now nothing in sports betting is a certainty and yes that’s why it’s fun. You’re looking to limit your risks and understand predictability in the data. Find the anomalies in what you think you know about teams.
Did Vegas dump a stupid line out there to get money on the other side of something? Yes, they’re looking to get as much on both sides of things to limit their risk. This is why lines move.
Do what you want. Bet your heart instead of your head. Play Ian’s piss poor parlay prayers. Just don’t blame me when you’re chasing after losing everything on the Bears Bucs game.