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A Few Stats and a Few Picks for the 2021 National Championship

Written by Matlack

January 11, 2021

After a long and eventful 2021 college football season, Ohio State will be playing Alabama tonight to decide a national champion in Miami, FL.

The story of both team’s road to Miami has been highly publicized. When thinking about Alabama, you hear about their stud WR Devonta Smith, an excellent QB, and a variety of other weapons(including Waddle who may be back tonight) on both sides of the football. Ohio State only played 7 games this year but Justin Fields is a college football leading 82% when throwing from a clean pocket and impressed in last weekend’s win over Clemson. His courage and toughness to fight through what might have been broken ribs showed the nation what this kid is made of and I expect, as do many, for him to not just play tonight but to make things interesting. 

FanDuel and Draftkings have taken notice and are offering a variety of very interesting betting options, not only in props but also in promotion that they are running. There are two that I want to talk about and I think are very interesting options to take note of. The first being that FanDuel is offering the Alabama moneyline at +100 for bets up to $25, this being moved from the -315 they have listed as the primary Alabama moneyline. Draftkings has their own fun promo with the over 69(nice) points line being +100 for up to a $50 bet. 

Stats to take note of in tonight’s game:

  • Ohio State has averaged an even 272 yards rushing and passing this year
  • Ohio State’s Defense has allowed an average of 89 yards on the ground per game this year – #2 in the FBS
  • Trey Sermon rushed for 192 yards on the ground vs Clemson and 331 against Northwestern
  • Mac Jones has 3 total rushing yards this season and a total of -5 scrimmage yards
  • Devonta Smith has had more than 140 yards 8 times this season
  • Nick Saban is 0-4 against the spread in his last four national championship games

With that being said here are my favorite picks tonight’s game:

  1. Over 69 points with the Draftkings promotion
  2. Alabama moneyline +100 with the Fanduel promotion
  3. Under 10.5 yards rushing for Mac Jones at -157
  4. Over 102 rushing yards for Trey Sermon at -129
  5. Under 110.5 rushing yards for Najee Harris at -108
  6. Over 139.5 yards for DaVonta Smith at -121

It should be a great night with a ton of fun moments, assuming Justin Fields is able to play, I will take Alabama to win, Ohio State to cover in a close but high scoring game.

Roll Tide.

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